24/25 and earlier PtP & Hunter Chase discussion

Some will have noticed some bizarre betting moves in hunter chases this year and the markets fluctuating massively in the final few minutes before a race. Whilst it doesn't mention hunter chases this piece in Thursday's Post explains what is going on in the markets.

Anyone betting on the racing on Scottish National day earlier this year could hardly have missed some truly extraordinary betting patterns.

There was a 33-1 winner of the Fred Darling who had been as short as 11-1 overnight; an early 25-1 shot winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle having been hammered into 10-1; even an 11-4 overnight favourite ending up bigger than horses who had been priced up at 8-1, 12-1, 14-1 and 20-1 at the same stage.

Among those taken aback by what they saw was Racing Post tipster Paul Kealy, although Kealy is enough of a seasoned punter to have suspected that what he was witnessing wasn’t just a crazy one-off but part of a much wider pattern.

Writing in his Betting World newsletter the following week, an email sent every Wednesday evening to Racing Post+ Ultimate subscribers, Kealy wrote: "It's a phenomenon that's been happening for a while and it seems to me that overnight and early ante-post prices are becoming an increasingly unreliable guide to how markets are going to evolve on the day."

The Racing Post can now show that Kealy’s belief that the early markets are “subject to much wilder fluctuations on the day than used to be the case” was absolutely correct. So why do on-the-day markets for major racedays seem to be in this unprecedented state of flux? And how can punters take advantage?

More changes – and far more drifters

First, the data. I looked at 13 Saturdays from Greenham day through to July Cup day last weekend, noted the most common price available on each runner from the Pricewise boxes on the morning of the race and the starting price for each runner, then took the bigger of the two numbers and calculated the percentage decrease to the smaller number. I then went back ten years to cover the equivalent 13 racedays from 2015, following the same process to calculate the percentage difference between overnight and starting prices.

The data confirmed a massive disparity between 2015 and 2025, demonstrated in the scatter graph below. This takes the 925 runners on the 26 racedays from the two years – discounting races in which there were non-runners, which would naturally have altered the market – and distributes them on the graph according to the percentage difference between their general overnight odds and starting price, with horses from 2025 represented by red dots and horses from 2015 represented by grey dots.

As you will see, there is a far greater concentration of red dots, representing the 2025 changes, at the extremes of the graph – as well as a far greater number of them above the 0 line, where we’ve shown those horses whose price lengthened on the day of the race.

This reflects the fact that the average price changed by 29.1 per cent in these races in 2025, compared to just 16.4 per cent in 2015. And the period this year has seen most price changes going in punters’ favour on the day, with 53.6 per cent of horses getting bigger, 35.8 per cent getting shorter and 10.6 per cent staying the same. Go back ten years and just 35.2 per cent of horses were getting bigger, with 40.2 per cent getting shorter and 24.6 per cent staying the same (more than double the ratio of this year, another indicator of the far more settled markets back then).

‘Bookmakers are pricing and trading more cautiously’

It’s therefore unsurprising that Kealy isn’t the only punter who has seen this happening.

"The overnight markets now seem to have minimal liquidity, meaning it takes only a small amount of money to shift prices dramatically," says professional punter Mark Holder.

"It’s a bit like trying to trade a micro-cap share with barely any volume – if someone buys a few thousand shares, the price moves sharply, not because of any new information, but simply due to the lack of meaningful trading. The same principle seems to apply in these overnight horseracing markets.

"A good example was a trainer friend of mine who had a horse recently priced up at 66-1 in a handicap the night before. He thought it would run well and, sure enough, it was sent off at 7-1 – which felt about right. The overnight price clearly bore no resemblance to its true chance and had no relation to meaningful market sentiment.

"I remember reading a while back that the SP is the most reliable predictor of a horse’s chance, and I’d say that still holds. The earlier markets just seem too fragile to trust."

Mark Holder: "The earlier markets just seem too fragile to trust"Credit: Tom Sandberg/PPAUK

Punter and pundit Dave Nevison can often be heard on Racing TV saying that the prices in front of him as a race approaches bear little resemblance to those printed in the Racing Post the night before. 

"My general view is that the markets are much thinner and whippier than they used to be because there's no consensus," says Nevison. "The only time the market has any depth is three minutes before the off and the wisdom of crowds means that market is likely to be very accurate. 

"It's not a criticism of the odds-compilers, it's just a fact the real market happens now and we should pay attention to it. The game has changed." 

James Knight is racing trading director at Entain, the owners of Coral and Ladbrokes, and therefore sits on the other side of the fence when it comes to the battle between punters and bookmakers, but he agrees that bookmakers have very much altered the way they do business in recent times, with an inevitable impact on the markets.

"I think it's fair to say the markets get going later than they did in the past," says Knight. "There's less liquidity in the markets overnight and definitely less liquidity on the exchanges and I think bookmakers are pricing and trading more cautiously the day before generally.”

Knight pinpoints two major reasons as to why this is the case.

"Go back in time and there are two main differences. One was the fact bookmakers guaranteed the prices. So the fact people knew they were going to get X price with Ladbrokes tomorrow meant there was more confidence and people were putting money up on the exchanges at similar prices knowing they could back it the next day, so there was a lot more money in that market. 

"In the days bookmakers had to guarantee their prices, there was a lot more onus on them to spend a lot more time looking at those races, because if you got it wrong it was going to cost you a lot of money, whereas now all the firms will put prices up and, because it's low liquidity and your limits aren't that high, you're letting the market decide to an extent. 

"I wouldn't sit here and say our prices are brilliant the day before. I don't think they are and it's kind of letting the smaller-stake activity bash those prices into shape for the next day."

The second significant change in recent years relates to technology and big betting syndicates using computer programmes which use highly complex formulas which weigh up different factors, including current odds, and allow those using them to make a large number of wagers in a split second. 

"Modelling-type syndicates weren't anywhere near as prevalent then as they are now," says Knight. "There might have been a few clever people ahead of the curve but there's much more of that type of activity now. It's almost impossible for a human to price the way a model would price. 

"There's definitely an element that a lot of the markets are shaped by modelling syndicates and they aren't typically playing the day before. What you'll see the day before will be human tissue prices and I think on the day, as you get closer to the race, the markets are getting shaped more and more by the syndicates. 

"The bigger players on the exchanges are playing later as well. It's all about on-the-day now and particularly in that last 30 minutes. The dynamic has definitely changed."

‘In two minutes you go from winning a couple of grand to losing a couple of grand’

George Moakes has been in the betting industry for 61 years and is currently manager for Roar Betting. He says the regular drifting in the betting of big-race winners on Saturdays is proving to be a problem for small bookmakers.

The prime example was Grand National winner Nick Rockett, who was reported by the majority of bookmakers to have been a poor result, yet despite his popularity with punters he drifted to 33-1 (from 18-1) in the 20 minutes before the race.

Nick Rockett's Grand National win was a painful one for George MoakesCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

"The Grand National winner in March was 8-1 favourite," says Moakes. "It's trained by the top trainer in Ireland and ridden by his son. At 3.58pm it's 25-1. One minute later it's gone 28-1 and ten seconds after that it's gone to 33-1. And then they're off and it's too late to hedge. It can't go five points bigger in the space of ten seconds.   

"We take great pride in looking after our liabilities, but when at 3.57 it's 22-1 and you're going to win a couple of grand to two minutes later it's out to 33-1 and you're going to lose a couple of grand, it's sheer frustration for the small independent bookmaker."

That is not the only example Moakes has of a horse inexplicably drifting before winning in recent weeks. 

"Hickory won the Victoria Cup at Ascot at 22-1, having opened at 16-1, despite being tipped by Pricewise and two ITV panellists, while a few weeks ago in the Racing Post, it was reported that the trainer [Ed Walker] of Mgheera, who won the Temple Stakes at Haydock, was surprised that his well-fancied horse drifted from 4-1 to 12-1 before returning at 10-1. What is going on and who is making them these prices?"

Knight confirms that Nick Rockett was indeed a poor result for Entain, but has a potential answer to why the price can change so drastically in either direction immediately before the off. 

He explains: "Nick Rockett was a good example of one who had been well backed during the day with us. It was one of our top eight worst results in the race. But because there was a late drift on the exchange, which I think would have almost certainly been driven by syndicates who didn't fancy it, it drifted to say 40-1 on Betfair, and then it’s the same with a lot of the firms because they're tracking the market.

"Our last show was 22-1 because it wasn't a great result for us, but we've ended up returning 33-1 at industry SP. That cost Entain a lot. So if anyone is saying bookmakers are rigging these markets to suit themselves, this is a very good example of that not happening and punters have massively benefited [in this instance]. I think it's almost certainly down to the late money on the machine not liking that horse.

"It's almost like there's two markets now. There are humans sat there with form books and the Racing Post, trying to get our heads around what we think, and then there are machines crunching numbers. Especially at the bigger meeting when there's World Pool, we think the syndicates are playing into those markets, and you see horses getting backed off the board and it's hard to see why. I sometimes wonder if anyone knows because it's just computer-driven.  

"The market is following the lead of those things and it's often leaving traditional punters, bookmakers and analysts scratching their heads, thinking 'why has that drifted?’ and 'why has that halved in price?’ They are looking for a reason and the reason might just be that something has crunched through a million horse performances and made it that price. That's the reality now."

‘We shouldn’t get too wound up by market moves’

So big price swings are the new reality, but is there a way for punters to take advantage of how volatile markets have become on the day of the race and in particular in the last 30 minutes before a race? For this, I enlisted three of the Racing Post’s top punters – betting editor Keith Melrose, deputy betting editor Graeme Rodway and race analyst Steffan Edwards.

For Melrose, it comes down to reading the models – and being open to a pretty huge change in mindset.

“For me, the big consequences of these changes is in how I bet,” he says. “I’m nearly 40 and for the first time in my betting life an ordinary-staking punter can’t just assume the morning prices to be their best opportunity. I’m still wrestling with how to play that.”

But Melrose does suggest one obvious way forward.

“Knowing what the models do and don’t like is going to be a weapon in the years to come,” he says. “They don’t like claimers or amateur jockeys, for instance – maybe hence Nick Rockett.”

Keith Melrose's analysis of the markets suggests computer modelling might not have liked Nick Rockett because he was ridden by an amateur jockey in Patrick MullinsCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Edwards, a regular exchange player, has also noted an apparent pattern in the models when it comes to more moderate all-weather fare.

“I noticed a trend in bad races on the all-weather over the winter for horses with consistent form but a propensity to get beaten, often long-standing maidens, to be well backed late on,” he says. “This suggests to me that the model makers, who command the market before the off, sometimes overrate the winning chance of slow horses who can be relied upon to run to a certain figure, and perhaps can’t see the monkeys for the trees.

“In these bad races, an inconsistent sort who can win on a good day might present more value these days against the consistent but dubious battler who's an infrequent or non-winner.”

Rodway feels the best opportunities lie at the opposite end of the quality scale. He reminds us that we can’t hold the modellers solely responsible for dictating the starting prices, which are a reflection of the views of the whole market. He points out that Saturday markets are more likely to be influenced by casual punters who often like to follow the money.

“Higher-grade races are attractive to the casual punter in a way that lower-grade ones aren’t,” he says. “So there’s a lot of casual money knocking about in higher-grade races, especially those live on ITV on a Saturday, and it’s not just the models that are causing these wild fluctuations, it’s the casual money following the model money. Casual punters see or hear that a horse is shortening and back it in the mistaken belief that the market is omniscient. They also avoid drifters for the same reason.

“The best opportunity for independent-minded punters to profit therefore exists in the biggest of races that attract a lot of casual money. It can pay to go against the crowd on the feature Saturdays because that casual money is there for the independent-minded punter to mop up.”

"I’ve no doubt there are opportunities there,” agrees Holder. "My take is that I decide what a reasonable price is, and the volatility can be to my benefit – provided I’m not influenced by big drifts. We shouldn’t get too wound up by market moves in either direction. Occasionally they are informative, but not often enough to make it worth worrying about."

However, Holder also warns: “The issue is that even if you can identify value, consistently beating SP tends to trigger account restrictions very quickly – often to stakes so small they’re practically pointless.” 

Knight concedes that it’s “not easy” to get on huge bets overnight, but nevertheless he does identify a possible route to profit for small-stakes punters.

"We know now that the overnight market isn't necessarily that accurate a guide of what the SP is going to look like, which can be an opportunity for people if they think that is wrong. 

"When the markets are weak people should think these prices might be wrong and, if you can find three or four horses who are overpriced, placing a small-stakes multiple is a way to get multiplied value. It is possible but it's not easy.”